Theorem 7.4.1. Negative Binomial Series.
\begin{equation*}
\displaystyle \frac{1}{(a+b)^n} = \sum_{k=0}^{\infty} {(-1)^k \binom{n + k - 1}{k} a^k b^{-n-k}}
\end{equation*}
Section 7.4 Negative Binomial
Consider the situation where one can observe a sequence of independent trials where the likelihood of a success on each individual trial stays constant from trial to trial. Call this likelihood the probably of "success" and denote its value by \(p\) where \(0 \lt p \lt 1 \text{.}\) If we let the variable \(X\) measure the number of trials needed in order to obtain the rth success, \(r \ge 1\text{,}\) with \(R = \{r, r+1, r+2, ... \}\) then the resulting distribution of probabilities is called a Geometric Distribution.
Note that r=1 gives the Geometric Distribution.
Proof.
First, convert the problem to a slightly different form: \(\frac{1}{(a+b)^n} = \frac{1}{b^n} \frac{1}{(\frac{a}{b}+1)^n}
= \frac{1}{b^n} \sum_{k=0}^{\infty} {(-1)^k \binom{n + k - 1}{k} \left ( \frac{a}{b} \right ) ^k}\)
So, let’s replace \(\frac{a}{b} = x\) and ignore for a while the term factored out. Then, we only need to show
\begin{equation*}
\sum_{k=0}^{\infty} {(-1)^k \binom{n + k - 1}{k} x^k} = \left ( \frac{1}{1+x} \right )^n
\end{equation*}
However
\begin{align*}
\left ( \frac{1}{1+x} \right )^n & = \left ( \frac{1}{1 - (-x)} \right )^n \\
& = \left ( \sum_{k=0}^{\infty} {(-1)^k x^k} \right )^n
\end{align*}
This infinite sum raised to a power can be expanded by distributing terms in the standard way. In doing so, the various powers of x multiplied together will create a series in powers of x involving \(x^0, x^1, x^2, ...\text{.}\) To detemine the final coefficients notice that the number of time \(m^k\) will appear in this product depends upon the number of ways one can write k as a sum of nonnegative integers.
For example, the coefficient of \(x^3\) will come from the n ways of multiplying the coefficients \(x^3, x^0, ..., x^0\) and \(x^2, x^1, x^0, ..., x^0\) and \(x^1, x^1, x^1, x^0,..., x^0\text{.}\) This is equivalent to finding the number of ways to write the number k as a sum of nonnegative integers. The possible set of nonnegative integers is {0,1,2,...,k} and one way to count the combinations is to separate k *’s by n-1 |’s. For example, if k = 3 then *|*|* means \(x^1 x^0 x^2 = x^3\text{.}\) Similarly for k = 5 and |**|*|**| implies \(x^0 x^2 x^1 x^2 x^0 = x^5\text{.}\) The number of ways to interchange the identical *’s among the idential |’s is \(\binom{n+k-1}{k}\text{.}\)
Furthermore, to obtain an even power of x will require an even number of odd powers and an odd power of x will require an odd number of odd powers. So, the coefficient of the odd terms stays odd and the coefficient of the even terms remains even. Therefore,
\begin{equation*}
\left ( \frac{1}{1+x} \right )^n = \sum_{k=0}^{\infty} {(-1)^k \binom{n + k - 1}{k} x^k}
\end{equation*}
Similarly,
\begin{equation*}
\left ( \frac{1}{1-x} \right )^n = \left ( \sum_{k=0}^{\infty} {x^k} \right )^n = \sum_{k=0}^{\infty} {\binom{n + k - 1}{k} x^k}
\end{equation*}
To validate the above proof using software, consider the interactive cell below that determines each side of the above formula and shows that they are equal.
Consider the situation where one can observe a sequence of independent trials with the likelihood of a success on each individual trial \(p\) where \(0 \lt p \lt 1 \text{.}\) For a positive integer r, let the variable \(X\) measure the number of trials needed in order to obtain the rth success. Then the resulting distribution of probabilities is called a Negative Binomial Distribution.
Theorem 7.4.2. Negative Binomial Probability Function.
\begin{equation*}
f(x) = \binom{x - 1}{r-1}(1-p)^{x-r}p^r,
\end{equation*}
for \(x \in R = \{r, r+1, ... \}\text{.}\)
Proof.
Since successive trials are independent, then the probability of the rth success occurring on the x-th trial presumes that in the previous x-1 trials were r-1 successes and x-r failures. You can arrange these indistinguishable successes (and failures) in \(\binom{x-1}{r-1}\) unique ways. Therefore the desired probability is given by
\begin{equation*}
P(X=x) = \binom{x - 1}{r-1}(1-p)^{x-r}p^r
\end{equation*}
Example 7.4.3. Flipping a die until getting a third success.
Once again, consider rolling our 24-sided die until you get a multiple of 9...that is, either a 9 or an 18...for the third time. Once again, the probability of getting a 9 or 18 on any given roll is \(p = \frac{1}{12}\) but since we will continue rolling until we get a success for the third time, this is modeled by a negative binomial distribution and you are looking for
\begin{equation*}
f(x) = \binom{x-1}{2} \left ( \frac{11}{12} \right )^{x-3} \left ( \frac{1}{12} \right )^3 \\
= \frac{(x-1)(x-2)}{2} \left ( \frac{11}{12} \right )^{x-3} \left (\frac{1}{12} \right )^3
\end{equation*}
Computing f(x) for any given x is relatively painless but computing F(x) could take some effort. There is generally not a graphing calculator distribution option for negative binomial but the interactive cells below can be utilized to help with the tedious computations. For example, if you were interested in \(P(X \lt 20) = P(X \le 19 ) = F(19)\) then the interactive calculator below using r=3 and \(p = \frac{1}{12}\) gives \(F(19) \approx 0.20737.\)
Example 7.4.4. Testing a critical component until failure.
Let’s once again test a series of critical system components until you find two that fail. Again, suppose a particular component has a p=0.01 probability of breaking on any given trial. Since you will stop when you encounter the third failure, you can model this situation with a negative binomial distribution and the probability that the 2nd component fails on the x-th trial is given by
\begin{equation*}
f(x) = \binom{x-1}{2-1} 0.99^{x-2} \cdot 0.01^2 = (x-1) \cdot 0.99^{x-2} \cdot 0.01^2.
\end{equation*}
Once again, let’s compute the likelihood that you get the second failure on one of the first five trials. Then,
\begin{equation*}
F(5) = f(2)+f(3)+f(4)+f(5) \\ = 0.01^2 + 2 \cdot 0.99 \cdot 0.01^2 + 3 \cdot 0.99^2 \cdot 0.01^2 + 4 \cdot 0.99^3 \cdot 0.01^2 \approx some nice number
\end{equation*}
which is still relatively small.
Theorem 7.4.5. Negative Binomial Distribution Sums to 1.
>
\begin{equation*}
\sum_{x=r}^{\infty} {\binom{x - 1}{r-1}(1-p)^{x-r}p^r} = 1
\end{equation*}
Proof.
\begin{equation*}
\sum_{x=r}^{\infty} {\binom{x - 1}{r-1}(1-p)^{x-r}p^r} = p^r \sum_{x=r}^{\infty} {\binom{x - 1}{r-1}(1-p)^{x-r}}
\end{equation*}
and by using \(k = x-r\)
\begin{align*}
& = p^r \sum_{k=0}^{\infty} {\binom{r + k - 1}{k}(1-p)^k}\\
& = p^r \frac{1}{(1-(1-p))^r}\\
& = 1
\end{align*}
Below, the interactive cell symbolically computes f(x) and F(x) for the negative binomial distribution.
Checkpoint 7.4.6.
A telephone saleswoman arranges a sequence of interviews of potential customers in order to sell them an insurance policy. She believes that her success rate in completing a sale in any interview is 11 %. Provide answers to at least 3 decimal places.
Determine the probability that she fails to make a sale on the first five interviews:
Determine the probability that she makes her first sale on the fourth interview:
Determine the probability that the second sale is made on the sixth interview:
Answer 1.
Answer 2.
Answer 3.
Solution.
\(0.558\)
\(0.078\)
\(0.04209\)
Using geometric,
\begin{equation*}
P(X \gt 5) = 1 - F(5) = (1-p)^5 = 0.89^5 \approx 0.558
\end{equation*}
Using geometric,
\begin{equation*}
P(X = 4) = f(4) = (1-p)^3 \cdot p = 0.89^3 \cdot 0.11 \approx 0.078
\end{equation*}
Using negative binomial with r=2,
\begin{equation*}
P(X = 6) = f(6) = 5 (1-p)^4 \cdot p^2 = 5 \cdot 0.89^4 \cdot 0.11^2 \approx 0.04209
\end{equation*}
Theorem 7.4.7. Statistics for Negative Binomial Distribution.
For the Negative Binomial Distribution,
\begin{equation*}
\mu = \frac{r}{p}
\end{equation*}
\begin{equation*}
\sigma^2 = r \frac{1-p}{p^2}
\end{equation*}
\begin{equation*}
\gamma_1 = \frac{2-p}{\sqrt{r(1-p)}}
\end{equation*}
\begin{equation*}
\gamma_2 = \frac{p^2-6p+6}{r(1-p)} + 3
\end{equation*}
Proof.
Theorem 7.4.8. Negative Binomial Limiting Distribution.
For the negative binomial distribution 7.4.2, as \(r \rightarrow \infty\)
\begin{equation*}
\gamma_1 \rightarrow 0
\end{equation*}
and
\begin{equation*}
\gamma_2 \rightarrow 3.
\end{equation*}
Proof.
For skewness, take the limit of the skewness result above
\begin{equation*}
\lim_{r \rightarrow \infty} \frac{2-p}{\sqrt{r(1-p)}} = lim_{r \rightarrow \infty} \frac{C}{r^{1/2}} = 0.
\end{equation*}
Similarly for kurtosis
\begin{equation*}
\lim_{r \rightarrow \infty} \frac{p^2-6p+6}{r(1-p)} + 3 = lim_{r \rightarrow \infty} \frac{C}{r} + 3 = 3.
\end{equation*}
